"I wish they would only take me as I am" - Vincent Van Gogh               "How Can I believe in God when just last week I got my tounge caught in the roller of an electric typewriter?" - Woody Allen              "Our truest life is when we are in dreams awake" - Henry David Thoreau              "I took a speed reading course and read 'War and Peace' in twenty minutes. It involves Russia" - Woody Allen            "When promulgating esoteric cogitations, eschew platitudinous ponderosities" - Mark Rowan, my father            "Up, sluggard, and waste not life, for in the grave there will be sleep enough" - Benjamin Franklin             "What really interests me is whether God had any choice in the creation of the world." - Albert Einstein            "Welfare's purpose should be to eliminate, as far as possible, the need for its own existence" - Ronald Reagan            "It's odd that you can get so anesthetized by your own pain or your own problem that you don't quite fully share the hell of someone close to you." - Lady Bird Johnson              "I still want to be the candidate for guys with confederate flags in their pickup truck" - Howard Dean

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Graduate of the University of Oregon, Married for 4-1/2 years to my High School sweetheart. I am currently residing in Cleveland while I attend med school.

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    Monday, March 17, 2008

    Quick thoughts on Nader

    Most people agree that had Nader not run in 2000 Al Gore would have won the presidency. I suppose there are many "what-if's", but considering the narrow margin of victory in Florida, this seems pretty clear. Nader received almost 3% of the popular vote that year. Four years later, in 2004, he received less than half of 1%, pretty much not a factor.

    Now that he has thrown his hat into the ring for the 2008 cycle, many are predicting that he will again not gain sufficient support and won't influence the general election, much like 2004. I have a different theory, that his running will more closely resemble 2000 than 2004.

    In 2000, George W. Bush was not the divisive figure that he was in 2004. "Bush Derangement Syndrome" was an unknown term. Whether it was Bush or Gore, 2.74% were ambivalent and decided to cast their vote for Nader to make a statement. By 2004 the hatred for Bush took over, and people may have considered Kerry the lesser of two evils--they may not have liked him, but they hated Bush. I think Independents were more prone to vote for a third party in 2000.

    Now, here we are in 2008. The Democratic party is doing whatever it can to disenfranchise it's electorate. As much as Howard Dean likes to say that McCain will just be a third Bush term, most Americans recognize that this is just Rhetoric. Thus, I don't think Bush hatred will keep people away from McCain. In short, we are in a situation more similar to 2000 than 2004, and I think Nader could receive a few percentage points in the popular vote...perhaps enough to determine the outcome again.


    Anonymous jimmyk said...

    I think you have hit it on the head. I am considering Nader as a protest vote against both parties.

    5:25 PM  

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