"I wish they would only take me as I am" - Vincent Van Gogh               "How Can I believe in God when just last week I got my tounge caught in the roller of an electric typewriter?" - Woody Allen              "Our truest life is when we are in dreams awake" - Henry David Thoreau              "I took a speed reading course and read 'War and Peace' in twenty minutes. It involves Russia" - Woody Allen            "When promulgating esoteric cogitations, eschew platitudinous ponderosities" - Mark Rowan, my father            "Up, sluggard, and waste not life, for in the grave there will be sleep enough" - Benjamin Franklin             "What really interests me is whether God had any choice in the creation of the world." - Albert Einstein            "Welfare's purpose should be to eliminate, as far as possible, the need for its own existence" - Ronald Reagan            "It's odd that you can get so anesthetized by your own pain or your own problem that you don't quite fully share the hell of someone close to you." - Lady Bird Johnson              "I still want to be the candidate for guys with confederate flags in their pickup truck" - Howard Dean

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Graduate of the University of Oregon, Married for 4-1/2 years to my High School sweetheart. I am currently residing in Cleveland while I attend med school.

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    Wednesday, September 12, 2007

    Does Giuliani stand the best chance in a general election?

    CNN is running a story about Fred Thompson running neck-and neck with Rudy Giuliani in a recent poll. What's interesting about this is the distinction in demographics of supporters between the two candidates.
    Specifically, Thompson leads among men, southerners, voters age 50 and older and ideological conservatives. Conversely, Giuliani leads among women, voters in the Northeast and Midwest, voters under 50 and self-described GOP moderates
    With this in mind, it would seem that Republicans should be supporting Giuliani.

    It is unlikely that if Giuliani gets the GOP nomination, current Thompson supporters will vote Democrat. However, the demographics of Giuliani supporters are very similar to those of those who support the democratic candidates (particularly Clinton). It is conceivable that should Thompson get the GOP nomination that many current Giuliani supporters would vote democrat. Thus, does Giuliani have the best chance to win the General Election?


    Anonymous Jim Mathies said...

    I'd say the safe answer to that is an obvious yes. Although you have to give Thompson a chance, the same people 'most likely' to vote Democrat if Thompson wins the nomination, are the same group that mass defected from the Democratic party and voted for Reagan.

    3:05 PM  
    Blogger Jimmy K. said...

    Giuliani is a New York liberal in conservative clothing. If he gets the nomination, there will be third party run...probably by the Conservative Christians, that will pull enough votes from the Republicans and Hillary wins. She will probably win anyway. The true conservatives in the Republican party are going to have to stand up for their values and to hell with compromising. Better to loose an election than loose your principals.

    9:28 PM  

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