"I wish they would only take me as I am" - Vincent Van Gogh               "How Can I believe in God when just last week I got my tounge caught in the roller of an electric typewriter?" - Woody Allen              "Our truest life is when we are in dreams awake" - Henry David Thoreau              "I took a speed reading course and read 'War and Peace' in twenty minutes. It involves Russia" - Woody Allen            "When promulgating esoteric cogitations, eschew platitudinous ponderosities" - Mark Rowan, my father            "Up, sluggard, and waste not life, for in the grave there will be sleep enough" - Benjamin Franklin             "What really interests me is whether God had any choice in the creation of the world." - Albert Einstein            "Welfare's purpose should be to eliminate, as far as possible, the need for its own existence" - Ronald Reagan            "It's odd that you can get so anesthetized by your own pain or your own problem that you don't quite fully share the hell of someone close to you." - Lady Bird Johnson              "I still want to be the candidate for guys with confederate flags in their pickup truck" - Howard Dean

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Graduate of the University of Oregon, Married for 4-1/2 years to my High School sweetheart. I am currently residing in Cleveland while I attend med school.

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    Friday, June 01, 2007

    Morris on State Vs. Federal Polls

    Dick Morris has a great talent of predicting the future landscape of politics, and has an interesting take on interpreting the myriad of polls regarding the 2008 presidential race.
    National surveys of the presidential races in each party have remained relatively consistent since early in the year. As soon as Giuliani announced his candidacy, he jumped out to a big lead in the Republican primary, an advantage he still enjoys, although recent signs indicate a possible tightening of the contest. John McCain continues to run second, with Mitt Romney mired in a distant third place
    ...
    But the state-by-state surveys show a very different picture. Romney, buried in the national polls, not only shows the expected lead in his neighboring state of New Hampshire, but also leads the pack in Iowa, while John McCain shows unusual strength in South Carolina. On the Democratic side, Edwards runs ahead in Iowa and Hillary often polls a distant third.

    So which set of polls is predictive — the national surveys or the polling in the early-primary states?
    ...
    My bet is that the national will trump the local.
    I have a lot of respect for Dick Morris, but I am not in full agreement. I see the disparate poll results on the GOP side as little more than an indication of name recognition. Rudy likely took the early lead predominantly because of name recognition, which is precisely the reason that Gov. Romney has lagged. However, Romney was able to take the lead in raising funds. When one is ready to donate money to a political campaign, they do so after reviewing all of the choices--the other candidates. Thus, those willing to donate money to any campaign are more informed than the average American. Romney's massive fund-raising is a sign that those who have done their research have come to the conclusion that Mitt has the best message and is most worthy of their money. At least, this is the conclusion I came to.

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    1 Comments:

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    9:06 PM  

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